Ukraine Turning Point Fails To Materialise
Updated: 11:27pm UK, Tuesday 09 September 2014
By Katie Stallard, Sky News Correspondent, in Mariupol
There was a sense at the time that the shooting down of a civilian airliner would be a turning point.
That the international community would finally have to confront the conflict in Ukraine. That Russia would have to distance itself from the rebels.
But nearly two months on, very little has changed.
The eastern countryside is still a network of checkpoints and armed men.
Nato, the EU, the US and the UK all say Russia is sending thousands of troops, along with tanks and artillery across the border.
The Kremlin still denies it - insisting any Russian soldiers seen in Ukraine must have crossed the border "by accident".
One of the rebel leaders says they are there "on holiday".
Moscow has been hit by sanctions, but nothing that seems to have meaningfully changed President Vladimir Putin's calculus.
The Russian economy is already in decline - sanctions will hurt - but the Kremlin has almost complete control of the Russian media, so any hardship will be presented as the fault of the hostile "West".
Sanctions come and go, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has already said they can be suspended if enough progress is made.
What matters to Mr Putin is strategic interests.
That means not having Nato bases on his western border, which means denying the government full control of the east of Ukraine, or at the very least achieving regional federalisation.
He also wants to discourage his domestic electorate from aspiring to any form of revolution at home - much better if they associate the Maidan movement with chaos and civil war.
The Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko was out and about in his army fatigues on Monday rallying workers and local activists in Mariupol.
He said the city was, is, and will be Ukrainian.
But the problem for his government is that they know this: as much military force as they can muster - Russia has plenty more.
Mr Poroshenko told us openly: "The more we increase the pressure, the more Russian troops come into our territory."
Nato has made it pretty plain it is not going to be sending the cavalry, so Ukraine has a pretty limited hand to play.
Ultimately there will have to be a settlement - Russia has made it clear it will not allow the rebels to be defeated, so there will have be at the very least some form of special status afforded to the east.
The question is how much of the country the central government will have to cede to get to that point.
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