Ukraine Referendum Will Add Fuel To the Fire
Updated: 7:31pm UK, Saturday 10 May 2014
By Katie Stallard, Sky News Moscow Correspondent
The polling stations are ready and we're told three million ballot papers have been printed, enough for every eligible voter in the region of Donetsk.
But what is still far from clear is what they are being asked to vote for.
The question seems to be deliberately vague: do you support the act of state sovereignty of the Donetsk People's Republic? Yes or No?
That could be taken to mean greater autonomy, or some form of autonomous region, but still within Ukraine - or they could find they have voted for the creation of an independent state that could then seek to join the Russian Federation, a la Crimea.
Then there is the question of legality.
The referendum has no basis in law as there is no provision for local referenda on the statute in Ukraine.
There also seems to be no independent oversight and the poll will be policed by the separatists themselves - hardly the ideal conditions for a free and fair vote.
The organisers do not have access to up-to-date voting lists - those are held by the Ukrainian state security service - so they are relying on data from the 2012 parliamentary elections.
The ballot papers, at least those that we have seen so far, appear to have been printed on an ordinary printer, with no watermarks or other features to guard against, say, photocopying.
But that is unlikely to be at the top of the list of complaints, when the votes are also going to be collected and counted by "People's Republic" volunteers.
None of which is to deny that there may well be a genuine number of voters going to the ballot box on Sunday to vote "yes", at the very least to express their dissatisfaction with the government in Kiev.
The latest poll shows that while a strong majority (70%) in the east still want to live in a united Ukraine, around two-thirds (67%) disapprove of the current national government.
But I strongly suspect we will be in roughly the same position after this referendum as we are now - the Ukrainian authorities and politicians in the West will say that this was an illegal poll, carried out under the threat of intimidation, and with no means of independent verification.
The People's Republic will say, assuming the vote goes their way, that the people have spoken, that they have a democratic mandate, that this is a genuine popular uprising of ordinary citizens demanding their rights.
What is clear is that this referendum is unlikely to resolve what seems to be a deteriorating security situation in the east of this country - it is difficult to see it will do anything other than add more fuel to the fire.
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