Syria: Evidence Is No Smoking Gun
Updated: 2:39pm UK, Friday 26 April 2013
By Lisa Holland, Foreign Affairs Correspondent
Vital questions remain unanswered over the use of chemical weapons in Syria. Like the scale of casualties. Who fired the weapons? Who gave the orders?
To get that kind of information the Syrian government would need to allow in international inspectors and that isn't going to happen.
If chemical weapons have been deployed by government forces President Bashar al Assad won't cooperate in arranging a noose for his own neck.
If there is to be conclusive proof of the crossing of a "red line" Mr Assad would have to carry out an atrocity akin to the actions of Saddam Hussein against the Kurds in Halabja in 1988, where chemical weapons were used to kill at least 5,000.
It's estimated a further 7,000 were injured or suffered long-term illnesses. The nerve agents tabun, sarin and VX, as well as mustard gas, were believed to have been used at Halabja.
But Mr Assad is far too clever to carry out an attack like Halabja. He knows such an undeniable use of chemical weapons would leave the international community with no choice but to make good on its threats.
It would leave the Russians with no option but to finally and publicly turn their backs on him. For now having the Russians sitting on the diplomatic fence renders the United Nations Security Council impotent. Russia has the power of veto enabling it to block meaningful sanctions and actions against Syria.
The UN says it has a fact-finding team on stand-by in Cyprus ready to go into Syria within 24 hours. They may well have a long wait.
The UN team has been given permission to investigate claims of chemical weapons use in Syria's second city of Aleppo but they say they will not go in unless they are given permission for a country-wide investigation. That's something the Syrians have refused.
The British Government is keeping up diplomatic pressure to try to get investigators and evidence-gatherers into Syria. But just like all other aspects of diplomacy in Syria right now there's a lot of "keeping up pressure" but little progress.
David Cameron knows only too well the consequences of rushing to conclusions without proof. Anyone remember the fruitless hunt for weapons of mass destruction in Iraq?
Astonishingly, the US Republican Senator John McCain said "it's pretty obvious that red line has been crossed". Sorry Mr McCain but where is the evidence of a smoking gun?
US President Barack Obama is being much more cautious. With America now out of Iraq and heading towards the finishing line in Afghanistan he doesn't want to rush into another war in another Muslim country.
And keeping Americans safe isn't all about the Middle East. The despot who cried wolf in North Korea - otherwise known as Kim Yong Un - hasn't entirely gone away.
North Korea's new young leader has been threatening to launch a war against America. It seems like a cry for attention rather than a promise.
But just in case Mr Kim means business it wouldn't be ideal to have American troops deployed to north-east Asia and Syria just as quickly as they had got out of Iraq and Afghanistan - which leads us to the conclusion that we are no nearer military intervention in Syria than we were before this latest round of intelligence claims.
So whatever Mr McCain says this is not a game-changing moment. Expect more deaths, more refugees, more atrocities and more heart-rending stories of despair from Syria.
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