Election: Final Push In Race To White House

Who Will Win The Presidency?

Updated: 12:54am UK, Monday 05 November 2012

By Adam Boulton, Political Editor

In predicting who is going to be the next US president, all we have to go on are the opinion polls - the rest comes down to hunches and conscious or unconscious prejudice.

What's more, opinion polls in America are particularly unreliable. Polling just a few thousand people in a country where around 140 million are expected to vote is a risky business.

In many polls the margin of error, typically plus or minus 3%, is much bigger than the arithmetical 'lead' enjoyed by the top candidate.

There are also differences in the representative sample used by the pollsters. For example, that venerable organisation Gallup seems consistently to favour the Republicans by as much as 6% more than its rivals in national opinion polls.

As things stand, national opinion polls are mostly a dead heat, when a margin of error is allowed for.

Mr Obama's popularity declined after his poor performance in the debate on October 3 and he has not recovered his big lead since then. But Mr Romney had no "momentum" by the beginning of November.

At the weekend, the RealClearPolitics (RCP) National Poll Average stood at 47.5% for Mr Obama and 47.3% for Mr Romney.

Mr Obama is clearly not on course to do as well as he did in 2008 against John McCain when he polled 52.9% of votes cast compared to 45.7% for the Republican.

Indeed conventional wisdom has now placed at least two of the states he won then - Indiana and North Carolina - firmly in the Republican column.

National opinion polls reflect the popular vote across the country, and winning that is not how you get to be president. You win the election by winning the vote state by state, thus stacking up the majority of the 538 electoral college votes.

It's perfectly possible to win the popular vote and lose the electoral college. That's what Al Gore did against George W Bush in 2000. And it's what some Republicans fear Mr Romney may do this time.

So to work out who is going to sleep in the White House next January, you need to follow the state polls.

Working from this data America's leading analysts have come up with different snapshots of the state of the electoral race.

With 270 college votes needed to win, RCP allocates 201 to Mr Obama, 191 to Mr Romney and 146 votes in 11 states to play for.

Calling states on a solid and leaning basis, the Washington Post gives Mr Obama 243 electoral votes, Mr Romney 181, with 89 up for grabs in the toss up states - Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Wisconsin, Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire.

Nate Silver at the New York Times' controversial FiveThirtyEight blog makes a different probability-based analysis of the same polling data. 

He says there is now an 85.1% chance of Mr Obama being re-elected compared to just 14.9% that Mr Romney will become the 45th POTUS.  He calculates final electoral vote share at 306.9 for Mr Obama compared to 231.1 for Mr Romney.

You get a similar result if you apply the latest state polls to the toss-up states in the Washington Post and RCP models. With two days to go these state polls do not point to a dead heat - they suggest that Mr Obama is going to be re-elected.

In the latest polls from most of the swing states - Wisconsin, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Virginia and above all Ohio - the President is ahead, not by much but consistently. He has also edged ahead in Florida, where he held his biggest rally on Sunday.

The Romney campaign shifted its focus to Pennsylvania at the weekend, in an attempt to suggest that more states than the usual suspects may be in play. But here and in Minnesota and Michigan, which the Republicans are also citing, the latest polls are also against them.

David Axelrod, Mr Obama's campaign chief, has promised to shave off his moustache if the President loses any of these three.

So why is there such confidence among Republicans that their man will win? Basically they say the opinion polls are wrong - and they point to surveys of early voting which show that Mr Obama's support amongst key voters is well down on 2008.

This argument, best articulated by George W Bush's old aide Karl Rove in the Wall St Journal, says the pollsters are over-representing democrats in their samples. On the ground they say Democrats are de-motivated to vote, while Republicans are fired up, and independents are breaking their way.

No wonder so many pundits are sitting on the fence, pointing out that this is a very close race according to the polls - with Mr Obama's edge in most circumstances in the margins of error.

Those who are making a guess, have to fall back on hunches and rules of thumb.

There are plenty of personal bellweathers to choose from.

No president since Franklin D Roosevelt has ever been re-elected with unemployment this high (although at 7.9% it is only a tenth of a per cent above the level where they have been returned).

At the start of the campaign, 25% of the electorate said the would never vote for a Mormon.

"As goes Ohio, so goes the nation" is pretty good but not infallible, but it is the case that no Republican has ever won without carrying what pundits insist on calling the Buckeye [i.e. Conker] State.

Then there are the lessons from recent history.

Incumbent presidents generally have some squatter's advantage. In modern times the only two incumbent presidents denied re-election have been George Bush senior and Jimmy Carter. But both had stronger negatives against them than Mr Obama.

Mr Bush's 1988 election pledge "read my lips no new taxes" was a demonstrable lie by 1992, while in 1980 Mr Carter was humiliated by  American hostages held in Iran and a disastrous military mission to rescue them.

In contrast, Mr Obama presided over the killing of Osama bin Laden, economic indicators are at last moving in the right direction, and he's enjoyed high approval and endorsement in the past week for his handling of Hurricane Sandy.

It's also the case that the more charismatic candidate tends to win the presidency. Mr Carter outshone Gerald Ford but was put in the shade by Ronald 'Morning in America' Reagan; the reserved George Walker Bush was no match for 'Slick Willy' Clinton.

This year, by common consent, Mr Obama has the star power although Mr Romney is making the best of his buttoned-up big businessman demeanour.

Fifty-one-year-old Mr Obama is playing the man of the people: most often open-necked, shouting till he is hoarse and allowing himself the occasional blunt epithet such as "bull****er" about his opponent.

A well-preserved 65-year-old Mr Romney presents more formally as a president in waiting, he's even had his campaign plane painted to look like Air Force One. He's less inclined to dive into the crowd and typically delivers more-in-sorrow-than-in-anger pep talks about the state of Mr Obama's nation. A bit like the harangues most managers subject their employees to these days.

There is also a clear choice between the two men's visions of America - although both claim they are the man to unite the country across the political divide.

Arguing "we are all in this together" Mr Obama argues that government has a role in directing the country, the rich he says, need to contribute more.

Mr Romney champions the private sector, volunteers and individuals. He argues that lower taxes, even for the better off, will benefit all.

So who do I think will win?

I think it's unlikely that all the polls are as wrong as they would have to be for a Republican victory.

I note that the Republicans are under-performing in their ambitions for the US Congress - unlikely to take control of the Senate and set to lose a few seats in the House.

It also seems to me that the Republican Party is a house divided against itself. With powerful voices on the right such as the Tea Party pulling it along way from the centrist ground which saw Mr Nixon, Mr Reagan and even the Bushes first elected. If Mr Romney is elected, I suspect that the internal rows are only just beginning. Swing voters don't like divided parties.

Shifts in the US population do not favour Republicans - if this was a 'whites only' election Mr Romney would be home and dry. But as the Republican Senator Linsey Graham quipped this summer: "We are not generating enough angry white guys to stay in business for the long term."

Disappointment yes, almost everywhere, but I don't detect widespread anger and contempt for Mr Obama. The mood seems more to press on in hard times. A mood which may well have been strengthened by the travails of Hurricane Sandy in this closing week.

So my guess is that the President will be re-elected taking Ohio and probably Florida. But it is only a guess, America has two credible leaders to take it forward.

But most of the real votes have not been cast yet in spite of early polling, and they won't be until Tuesday.

Paddy Power is already paying out on an Mr Obama victory. If you've got a bet on, my advice is to get down to the bookies ASAP.

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Child Killed In Wild Dog Area At Pittsburgh Zoo

A two-year-old has been killed at Pittsburgh Zoo in the US after he fell off a railing into an enclosure for wild dogs.

Police say the boy's mother put him on top of the railing to view the African painted dogs.

He then fell 11 feet into the enclosure, where he was attacked by the wild animals.

Visitors to the zoo immediately told staff members when the boy fell from the railing.

Zookeepers called off the dogs, and seven of them immediately withdrew from the child.

Three other dogs were eventually drawn away from the boy, but the last dog had to be shot.

The accident occurred at the Pittsburgh Zoo & PPG Aquarium in Pennsylvania

Barbara Baker, the president and CEO of the Pittsburgh Zoo & PPG Aquarium, said staff "tried everything" to save the boy.

"They responded immediately when visitors alerted them to the fact that a child was in the yard," she said.

"They responded immediately and were able to get several of the dogs into the backup building."

Police said it was unclear whether the boy died from the fall, or from injuries inflicted by the dogs.

African wild dogs are also known as cape hunting dogs, spotted dogs, and painted wolves.

They have large, rounded ears and dark brown circles around their eyes and are considered endangered.

Lieutenant Kevin Kraus, of Pittsburgh police, described the accident as "horrific".

Authorities are yet to release the name of the boy or his 34-year-old mother.

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Call To End 'Gang Warfare' In Obama's Chicago

By Gary Mitchell, in Chicago

Matt DeMateo clearly remembers the day he had to tell his five-year-old daughter that her schoolmate had been shot dead on a porch.

The girl, Aliyah Shell, aged six, was an innocent victim in one of the hundreds of shootings that have blighted some of Chicago's poorest communities this year.

Her death in March refocused attention on gun violence in America and led to the Windy City's mayor, Rahm Emanuel, publicly challenging the unknown killer, telling a news conference: "How dare you?"

In some of Chicago's most deprived areas, where Barack Obama prepared for his political career as a community activist, people such as Mr DeMateo are hoping whoever is elected president will act to end the bloodshed.

Guns are easily bought in his neighbourhood of Little Village, in the west of the city.

A youth in Matt DeMateo's mentoring scheme was shot dead earlier this year

The 30-year-old pointed to scenes of shootings on virtually every block as he gave Sky News a tour of the area.

They are easy to spot because they are often marked with shrines made of beer bottles left by fellow gang members. Gang graffiti tags are everywhere.

He told how Aliyah's murder just a short drive from the house he shares with his wife and three children left his daughter fearing that they too would be shot.

"When you see and hear those kind of things growing up in a neighbourhood, it has a deep effect on people," he said. "It's traumatic."

Mr DeMateo runs a mentoring scheme for teenagers who have been put on probation for firearms offences.

Gangs use graffiti to taunt rivals in Little Village

He said his employer, Christian organisation New Life Centres, has had huge success turning young people's lives around and he insisted the area is mostly a vibrant and friendly community, not the "Godforsaken place" he said it is often portrayed as.

Sporting events run by the centre along with the YMCA tend to coincide with a drop in violence reported to police, he said, because teenagers who would otherwise be causing trouble are off the streets.

But he said they face an uphill battle as rival gang factions, whose members include boys as young as 13, engage in a turf war in which innocent victims such as Aliyah Shell are caught in the crossfire. The shooting in which she died was a retaliation for the killing of a 19-year-old man who had been helped by New Life Centres.

"We try to show young people that there's more to life than violence, but it's hard," he said. "There's no magic bullet. It's not easy to keep hearing moms wailing at funerals. I don't want to hear that sound any more."

Mr DeMateo questions whether his organisation's funding could be hit if Mr Obama were to lose to Mitt Romney, although the president is currently predicted by polls to be in line for a second term in the White House.

Emmy Lozano's grandson, 16, is a member of a gang

"A lot of the things we've got in the neighbourhood could be cut back," he said. "It could be harmful."

Emmy Lozano, 56, has lived in Little Village for 30 years. Each night as she goes to bed, she wonders if she will see her 16-year-old grandson alive again.

The boy, Manuel, has been sucked into a gang and not long ago he needed surgery after rivals set upon him, smashing his elbow with a plank of wood. She found him bleeding in the street.

"The president needs to do more for us," said Ms Lozano. "We need more money here. We have so many empty plots of land that aren't being used - why can't they create green spaces where these kids have something to do?

"It's scary here. I want to leave. I hear gunshots every week. We've lost a lot of young kids and too many mothers have suffered."

Support for Mr Obama remains strong - these posters are in the South Side

One ex-gang member helped by Mr DeMateo's team, a 17-year-old who cannot be named, told Sky News how he was arrested when he was 14 for carrying a gun. "I was on my way to kill a guy from another gang. I don't know why, I just had it in my head to do it."

He had joined a gang a year earlier when he started using marijuana and cocaine. "It was dumb. Being in a gang seemed like a good life. It was all b*******."

Chicago's murder rates have fallen in the past 10 years, but so far this year more than 440 people have been killed - greater than the death toll for all of last year. The murder rate here is higher than in New York or Los Angeles.

The city has attempted to deploy extra police to the worst-hit areas, but Mr DeMateo shrugs when he is asked about the police. "Police alone aren't the answer," he said. "There are many parts to the puzzle. We need to get to the cause of the problem."

A few miles away from Little Village, in Chicago's South Side, Father Michael Pfleger spent Sunday morning urging his congregation to vote and offering them free lifts to polling stations.

The unconventional Catholic priest at Saint Sabina's church is one of the city's most outspoken critics of guns and says he wants "whoever the next president may be" to ban assault weapons. Outside his church is a glass display containing pictures of local people who have been gunned down.

Fr Pfleger is quite a presence as he preaches in a style hard not to compare to an evangelist. On Sunday he danced to gospel music against the backdrop of a huge painting of a black Jesus and in front of a predominantly African-American audience before telling them: "You must vote. It is your obligation."

There is clear support for Mr Obama here - one parishioner was wearing a jacket bearing a large print of a smiling president, while others wore T-shirts branded with the Obama campaign logo.

Fr Pfleger hinted at his own liberal political leanings when he said things such as: "You can't be pro-life and not be against strong gun control in the community where these guns are killing our children."

Parts of the South Side show signs of neglect and lack green spaces

After the Mass he told Sky News the local neighbourhood of Auburn Gresham had recently seen a drop in shootings after several gangs agreed to stop fighting. He hopes gang members stick to the truce, but says that cannot happen unless jobs or education opportunities are found for them.

"Communities have post-traumatic stress from this violence that's rampaged... where teddy bears and police tape have become the new landmarks," he said.

"It's an undeclared war in urban America, but America has pretty much turned its back because the primary victim of this war is black and brown, and so they've ignored it.

"Whoever becomes the next president on Tuesday, we've got to put the pressure on them to deal with the guns, violence, education and poverty."

Asked if he felt it was Mr Obama's direct responsibility to tackle the issue, he said: "I don't think anybody in America or in the last generation of presidents has done enough to deal with violence. Part of that is our fault - we haven't forced them."

Koron Nash thinks the media exaggerates violence in his neighbourhood

Koron Nash, 32, who works for a scheme that finds jobs for young people in Auburn Gresham, said it was "unfair" to expect Mr Obama to do everything and said the media made too much of violence in the city.

"The majority of people here are good people," he said. "There is violence, there is anger, but I don't have a problem with that anger - it's just directed at the wrong people.

"We've got brothers shooting brothers, instead of directing that frustration at getting out of the mess that they're in."

His friend Tina Wallace, 35, a stay-at-home mother, said: "Things aren't as bad as they used to be."

Teacher Delores Wedgeworth, who lives near the church, said people were "realistic" that Mr Obama cannot tackle violence on his own.

"We know it's not going to happen overnight, that unemployment is just going to go away. But it's human nature to be impatient."

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Chicago: First US Gun Tax 'Will Stem Carnage'

By Gary Mitchell, in Chicago

A leading anti-gun campaigner has told Sky News a new tax on guns will help end "carnage" on the streets of Chicago - where firearms now change hands for as little as $20.

There have been more than 440 murders in Barack Obama's adopted home city so far this year, surpassing last year's total of 435.

Most involved gang shootings in the south and west of the city. It has been dubbed America's "murder capital" with a higher rate of killings than New York or Los Angeles.

Cook County, which takes in Chicago, is believed to be the first city in the US to introduce a firearms tax. It was approved by county officials on Friday.

Father Michael Pfleger, pastor of St Sabina Church in the city's South Side, said the $25 levy is a start.

"Guns are causing carnage on our streets," he said.

"Anything that makes them harder to get hold of, no matter how small, is to be welcomed.

Father Michael Pfleger has lobbied hard over gun laws

"We tax things like alcohol and cigarettes, but we haven't been taxing firearms.

"But I'd prefer if the tax was a lot higher, and if every single bullet was taxed."

A proposed tax of five cents per bullet was abandoned by Cook County because the tax would, in some cases, have exceeded the price of ammunition.

Officials said nearly a third of guns used in Chicago crimes were purchased legally in Cook County.

However, despite the surge in fatal shootings, gun control is not one of the big issues in the current presidential race - it was discussed only briefly in the second election debate.

Mr Obama, who has been attempting to win over conservative voters in battleground states, has refrained from stricter restrictions.

Father Pfleger, whose church is in the troubled Englewood area, has for years been lobbying for stronger gun laws, which are opposed by the National Rifle Association.

No fewer than 12 people have been shot dead in the three-square-mile Englewood district since the start of this year, according to RedEye, which tracks the latest figures from Chicago police and hospitals.

It lies a short drive away from the Kenwood family home of Mr Obama, who was a community activist in the South Side before entering politics. A man was shot a block away from his mansion in August.

Chicago mayor Rahm Emanuel

In the summer, Chicago mayor Rahm Emanuel was in Englewood to announce a move to secure or demolish vacant buildings to stop gangs using them as gathering places.

He has also attempted to increase policing in the worst-hit areas, but the death toll continues to rise and the police force has been hit with budget cuts.

Hermene Hartman, publisher of N'Digo, a Chicago magazine focused on African-Americans, said the South Side was like a "war zone". Whoever ends up in the White House for the next four years needs to do more to focus on urban crime, she said.

"Nobody is talking about urban America, the fear that people suffer," she told Sky News.

"Here in Chicago, people have been dying in greater numbers than in Afghanistan.

"People are afraid of letting their kids go to school, play outside. They fear doing everyday things because people are being killed.

"How do we figure out what's making these kids so violent? We've got to focus on these crime areas."

Cook County's gun tax is expected to raise $600,000 (£375,000) next year, which will be contributed to healthcare for survivors of shootings.

The tax has been criticised by the Illinois State Rifle Association, which said people will simply travel elsewhere to buy guns.

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Syrian Tanks 'Cross Into Israeli-Held Territory'

Israel says three Syrian tanks have entered the demilitarised zone in the Golan Heights for the first time in 40 years.

Israel restricted its response to complaining to the UN peacekeepers who monitor the de facto truce in the area, which was captured from Syria in 1967.

But the entry highlights the threat of the ever-worsening conflict spreading beyond its borders.

It was not immediately clear why the tanks had crossed the frontier, but Israeli media said the tanks had been in combat in the Syrian village of Beer Ajam where rebels have been trying to overthrow President Bashar al Assad.

Stray ordnance has previously exploded on the Israeli side as Syrian forces have conducted operations nearby.

Rebels also launched a major assault on the Taftanaz airbase in the northern province of Idlib, which is used to deploy regime air power.

Video posted on the internet is said to show rebel fighters firing rockets at the airbase, and being fired on as they try to secure a strategic north-south corridor.

Israel seized the Golan Heights in 1967

The attack on the Taftanaz base, from where helicopter gunships raid opposition positions and rebel-held areas, comes after troops launched an unprecedented wave of air strikes to try to reverse the rebels' gains.

The video said eight battalions were taking part in the attack, including the radical Islamist Al-Nusra Front.

It showed a missile launcher mounted on the back of a pick-up truck firing on regime positions.

The development came as video emerged from Syria which purportedly shows rebels filming as an attack jet targeted them.

The Syrian Revolution General Commission, a network of activists on the ground, said an operation had begun "to liberate the Taftanaz airbase".

Analysts said rebel forces clearly have the momentum in the battle for Syria's northwest.

"The rebels' gains in the north seem irreversible," said Thomas Pierret, a Syria expert at the University of Edinburgh's Islamic and Middle Eastern Studies department.

He said regime forces appeared to be concentrating their efforts in the region on defending the embattled commercial hub of Aleppo, which has been cut off from Damascus and the Mediterranean coast due to rebel advances in the past month.

"The problem with this strategy is that the Aleppo garrisons are now largely isolated. It is likely they will fall in the months to come," he said.

The fresh clashes came as the opposition prepared for key talks starting in Qatar on Sunday, where the United States is expected to push for a new umbrella organisation to unite the country's fractured regime opponents.

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Obama And Romney Hit Key US Swing States

The King Is Dead Long Live The King

Updated: 6:26pm UK, Saturday 03 November 2012

By Kay Burley, In Las Vegas

Elvis rocked the '60s with Viva Las Vegas. Almost half a century later and the two presidential candidates are hoping they can do the same.

Nevada is one of a handful of crucial swing states which will decide whether there's a new man at the White House or the present incumbent stays at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue for four more years.

Such then is the importance of the Silver State to both candidates that the President broke off from visiting those worst affected by superstorm Sandy to make a flying visit to Vegas.

Mitt Romney has also spent much of his time in the desert gambling on being able to woo the locals.

Barack Obama is counting on the Latino, Hispanic and female vote. Mr Romney is hoping for some divine intervention with the support of fellow Mormons, who make up 10% of the vote in Nevada.

In fact, so deep is their faith, they put aside contempt for drinkers and gamblers and reluctantly attended a celebration party in a Vegas casino when their man won the party nomination here.

It was all so different four years ago. Back in 2008, Mr Obama found it easy to walk voters up the aisle of the little White Chapel where thousands of others tie the knot each year in Vegas.

He won the state convincingly with a 12-point margin. But did the President not pay his new companions enough attention? Could he be heading for a messy divorce in 2012?

The Obama campaign is spending a fortune on TV advertising to try to make sure they forget any indiscretions and give him another chance.

Vegas residents are bombarded with more political ads than any other viewers in the country. Apparently those watching the local news, Jeopardy and Wheel of Fortune are particularly vulnerable to the TV appeals.

So what's the message? Well, the challenges of the economy have taken their toll on the USA and Nevada in particular. No longer are the streets paved with gold, certainly not for the residents at least.

If the issues this time are jobs and the economy then it should be easy for Mr Romney to convince the voters here to say "I do".

Nevada has the highest unemployment in the country (11.8% in September) and 60% of mortgages are underwater - negative equity - here, that's almost three times higher than the national average.

The city of northern Las Vegas has been described as the Ground Zero of the housing market. Foreclosure racked neighbourhoods sprawl way beyond the strip - and beneath it too.

More than 1000 people live in dirty, rat-infested underground flood tunnels way beneath Caesar's Palace and the Luxor casino hotels.

Disease and highly poisonous spiders are the major concern. Begging and "dumpster diving" for food is how they survive.

Many of those who call this home are former war veterans or those who came to Las Vegas in pursuit of the American dream.

Drink, drugs and depression are now their way of life. So, who do the residents of underground Vegas want to win on Tuesday?

I'll be finding out as I spend the next few days broadcasting for Sky News from Nevada.

But it's not just Vegas baby. There are another half a dozen swing states where the election can be won and lost.

My Sky News colleagues have fanned out from Washington to Florida, Ohio to Colorado to find out who the American people want to see victorious on Tuesday.

Using wireless digilinks we'll have correspondents strolling down mainstreet Des Moines and beach side Tampa. We'll be presenting across all the US time zones and have a pop up newsroom in Chicago.

Coverage starts in quite reserved Las Vegas with quite reserved me at 0600 Monday morning. Worth remembering that Nevada has backed the winning candidate in every election since 1976.

By early Wednesday morning UK time we should know who'll be King of Vegas and most probably the USA for the next four years.

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Syrian Rebels 'Execute' Government Soldiers

By Sam Kiley, Middle East Correspondent, in Jerusalem

Syrian rebels are suspected of murdering a group of captured government soldiers undermining a strategic victory which gave them control of the main highway between Aleppo and Damascus.

An unverified video of the killings, believed to have been in Saraqib, shows a group of about 20 armed men wearing rebel head bands standing over at least eight captured soldiers.

One of the soldiers pleads with the militia insisting that he did not shoot anyway.

A rebel can be overheard saying "gather them together for me".

Young men, many of them already wounded, are flung into a pile and then riddled with bullets.

Fighting in Aleppo

The executions are a reminder of a similar atrocity in Aleppo in August when a group of rebels murdered local people they accused of being members of Assad's Shabiha (ghosts) militia.

The capture of Saraqib is a significant strategic gain for the rebels. It controls the road to Damascus, and cuts the government forces main supply route to its Aleppo line.

It also severs the regime's links to Latakia, the main coastal city in the heartland of Assad's brethren in the Alawite community.

Rebel successes in the past have come from the valuable contribution of former regime soldiers who have changed sides, bringing their tactical skills with them.

Syrian refugees near the Turkish border

But recently deserters have been reluctant to contact revolutionary fighters for fear of summary execution. Last week a group of about 20 government soldiers gave themselves up in Turkey claiming asylum and saying they would not have surrendered to rebel forces for fear of retribution.

Amnesty International's Ann Harrison, the deputy Middle East and North Africa director, said that the footage appeared to show "a potential war crime in progress".

She said that the human rights group would continue to investigate the alleged atrocity.

The government is accused of widespread war crimes including the murder of civilians who have been found with their hands tied close to the government held air force headquarters in Aleppo.

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton

The rebel gains, which are reported to include a 25km radius around Saraqib, have come at a time when the exiled Syrian national Council and other groups are facing international criticism for their apparent failure to unite.

Two days ahead of key talks among the opposition in Qatar, the Syrian National Council lashed out at US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's recent statement that it was not fully representative of the country's diverse dissident forces.

"Any discussions aimed at passing over the Syrian National Council or at creating new bodies to replace it are an attempt to undermine the Syrian revolution by sowing the seeds of division," the SNC said in a statement.

Clinton said the SNC was not representative of on-the-ground opposition forces and that it "can no longer be viewed as the visible leader of the opposition".

It is likely that Washington will be pushing for an overhaul of the opposition at a meeting in Qatar this weekend. But US influence will depend on Qatari support.

Washington contributes a pittance, and only in the form of non-lethal aid, to rebels who receive hundreds of millions of pounds in support from Qatar and Saudi Arabia, much of it donated by individuals.

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Vigilantes Seize Mexico Town After Murder

Authorities in Mexico have said they are close to striking a deal to provide more security for a town where angry residents seized control after the abduction and murder of a taxi driver.

The takeover of the southern town of Olinala took place after around 100 people stormed a house where four suspected kidnappers were hiding. They were killed after the building was set alight.

The town's mayor, Eusebio Gonzalez, said nearly 700 residents had since been taking turns policing entry into the town by barricading streets and installing checkpoints.

Mr Gonzalez said the murder of the taxi driver was the latest in a series of violent attacks and Olinala residents are demanding more protection from criminal gangs.

He said the Guerrero state governor has promised to increase help to fight drug crime.

"We're looking to establish order. The governor is aware of the situation and wants to improve the situation," Mr Gonzalez said.

"People feel like there isn't another way."

The town's vigilante unrest erupted at the taxi driver's funeral after rumours emerged that a second driver had been kidnapped.

"Things got really ugly," said resident Paola Rosendo.

Eduardo Gallo, a respected Mexican anti-crime activist, said Olinala is just the latest town where people have taken up arms to combat organised crime in frustration over the government's inability to control drug violence.

"People took over in order to prevent authorities' collusion with criminals," he said.

At least two towns in the western state of Michoacan have formed their own armed guard forces and thrown up roadblocks to keep out criminals. Towns in northern Mexico also have taken similar measures.

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New York Scraps Marathon Amid Sandy Clear-Up

Sunday's New York City Marathon has been cancelled due to a public backlash against the road race in the aftermath of superstorm Sandy, the city's mayor has announced.

The U-turn came just three hours after mayor Michael Bloomberg defended the decision to hold it - despite mounting criticism from New Yorkers, many of whom are struggling with fuel shortages and continuing power cuts.

They complained that holding the event just six days after the disaster would be insensitive and tie up precious resources.

Residents were concerned the city's already stretched police force would be redeployed to patrol the race from handling relief work - and feared storm victims would be evicted from hotels to make room for people coming into town for the race.

Runners make their way through Queens during the 2011 race

There had been growing anger too at the thought of big generators being brought in to power equipment at the finish-line tents in Central Park, while vast swathes of the city's population were still struggling without electricity.

Although electricity was expected to be restored across most of Manhattan on Friday, about 3.5 million customers still remain without power along the US East Coast. Some may not have power until mid-November.

Mr Bloomberg insisted that holding the race would not take resources away from the recovery effort, but said he understood the level of friction and opposition to it.

"It is clear that it has become the source of controversy and division," he said. "The marathon has always brought our city together and inspired us with stories of courage and determination."

A man shovels away sand swept in by the storm surge generated by Sandy

An estimated 40,000 runners from around the world had been expected to take part in the 26.2-mile event.

"We would not want a cloud to hang over the race or its participants, and so we have decided to cancel it," the mayor said in a statement.

"We cannot allow a controversy over an athletic event - even one as meaningful as this - to distract attention away from all the critically important work that is being done to recover from the storm and get our city back on track."

The race had been scheduled to start in Staten Island, one of the hardest-hit areas by this week's storm.

A woman looks through the wreckage of her home in Staten Island

There residents picked through their belongings, searching for anything that could be salvaged as piled up rubbish, mud-caked mattresses and couches lined the streets. Hundreds of people remain in shelters after their homes were destroyed.

Earlier, Mr Bloomberg had said he hoped to lift spirits and unite the storm-stricken city when he decided to press ahead with the event.

He pointed out that his predecessor, mayor Rudolph Giuliani, went ahead with the marathon in 2011, just two months after the September 11 attacks, and "it pulled people together".

But, in a sign of how the political mood was turning against Mr Bloomberg, city comptroller John Liu warned that it had become clear that holding the marathon this weekend would "compromise the city's ability to protect and provide for the residents most affected by the hurricane".

A fallen tree on top of a parked car in the borough of Queens in New York

The New York Police Department has been stretched as its officers man checkpoints, patrol blacked-out neighbourhoods, direct traffic at crossroads where traffic lights are out and stand guard amid long queues at petrol stations.

"I haven't driven past a single working gas station that doesn't have cops patrolling the lines and keeping the peace," said John Murphy III, a Staten Island lawyer.

"I don't know how long they can keep it up at this pace."

In a move to ease the fuel shortage, the Obama administration directed the Defence Logistics Agency to buy up to 45 million litres of unleaded fuel and 38 million litres of diesel for distribution to areas affected by Sandy.

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'Shore People' Battle To Rebuild After Sandy

They pride themselves on being tough, resilient "shore people".

But Superstorm Sandy has made even them wonder whether life can ever be the same again.

A small bay-front corner of Pleasantville, New Jersey, is where Sandy made its second touchdown on land.

Houses that have withstood a century of extreme weather were picked and smashed to pieces inland.

Mike and Tracey Rock returned to their home on East Edgewater Avenue to find it had been shifted off its foundations.

A house where Mike's grandmother had lived, where he had sat through countless hurricanes since childhood, will now have to be demolished.

"It is devastating. This is our past. We all grew up here. We'll rebuild but it won't be the same."

As they picked through the debris down the street, they found their front porch and paintings that had hung in their living room.

They found a half-finished bottle of wine but are still searching for their bath.

They joke that at least their view of the bay is better - the house that was in the way has disappeared altogether.

A cash register is seen among the debris in Sea Bright, New Jersey

The owner of that house was picking around a demolished roof in a garden a hundred yards away, trying to find any signs of home.

The neighbourhood is criss-crossed by narrow waterways, all now full of bits of houses tossed around by Sandy.

Lisa Broomsmith's home was shattered by a houseboat which was ripped from its moorings and thrown inland.

The garage where her husband had carried on the family tradition of toy-making has gone.

She said: "Seeing the defeat in his face has been the hardest thing.

"But this is not going to defeat us, this one perfect storm."

Like many families here, the Broomsmiths must wait for assessors to decide what happens next to their battered home. They did not have insurance.

All are thankful to have survived a storm that has been so deadly in their state.

John Tansey says his home - maybe his life - was saved by his old brown Ford van which stopped a boat dock from smashing through his house.

With remarkable efficiency, the Egg Harbour authorities are collecting piles of debris as fast as residents can place them on the pavement.

The memories and the scars of Sandy will take much longer to remove.

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